Isn’t this a slight surprise even though it is a close race that Edwards has come from 3rd to 1st in Iowa. What is Iowa hearing in his message that is different from Clinton and Obama?
As a follow up to my previous 48 hour prediction wherein I genereically covered the bases of an Obama electoral blow out, let me get more specific this time. But first, the BIAS is amazing. CNN talks anout polls that have Obama up 12%. Newsmax talks about polls that have McCain closing in. Drudge picks whatever poll shows McCain in he best light. If Zogby has a one day good poll (like Halloween night) Drudge uses that. If all polls are for Obam, Drudge omits polls. Ah, the politcla BIAS is mre than evident.
Since I don’t have a horse in this race let me report OBECTIVELY!
The abnormalies of a Zogby Halloween 24 hour poll and the wild and crazy twelve point polls of CBS, there’s still the sane, and rational (if polling is ever that) Rasmussen and Zogby three day polling. Let me remind you though that it’s not about who is 2-12 percent ahead NATIONALLY. It’s all about the electoral college! We choose a pesident not on who wins the most votes, but who gets 270 electoral votes.
I will give you my final prognostication Tuesday morning, but here are the latest electoral estimates. Obama- McCain -Toss Up>Zogby……………………… …286/ 174/ 78 >Rasmussen………………….. 260/ 160/ 118 >Karl Rove…………………….. 311/ 157/ 70>Dick Morris…………………… 355/ 133/ 50>Larry Sabato………………….364/ 174/>CNN…………………………….…291/ 160/ 87>Real Clear Politics……… …311/ 132/ 95
Let’s get real. When six of seven polls have Obam winning the needed electoal 270 votes a week out, McCain is in deep do-do. So, when Newsmax (right wing bias publication) runs a line says, “John McCain is trailing presidential rival Barack Obama by just two points heading into Election Day, according to a new tracking poll released Sunday by Investors Business Daily”, You know it is HYPE! Hope! Wishful thinking!
And Drudge highlights a TIPP poll, “The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.” Wow, It looks liek Obama is toast!
Twenty four hours out, I don’t think so!
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I’ve been thinking a lot about the upcoming election. Events in recent history have both saddened and shocked me, and made me write this song.